I’m not here to sugarcoat it, so let’s rip off the Band-Aid.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 151,000 jobs created, falling short of the 170,000 estimate. Notably, 136,000 of those jobs came from the Birth/Death model, which estimates employment changes based on business openings and closures—a flawed measure of true job growth.

What does this mean for us? Rates are likely to drop as investors seek safety, driving more money into the bond market.

Let’s break down the job shifts: 1.2 million full-time jobs were lost, while 610,000 part-time jobs were added. Notably, all job gains came from the 16–19 age group, totaling 80,000, while employment for those 20 and older declined by 667,000.

The headlines reflect the reality on the ground. This trend has caught the Fed’s attention, with the market now pricing in three rate cuts this year.

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