Every year, the central banks from around the world meet at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Jackson Hole Wyoming. This is an important meeting the Feds have used to signal policy changes and long-term outlook for the Fed Fund Rate.

The meeting starts Thursday, with Fed Chair Powell speaking on Friday.

Everything has changed in the economy except the Fed. Back then the Fed Funds rate was between 5.25% and 5.50% as it still is today. Lets look at the numbers.

2023

• Core PCE: 4.3% – Personal Consumption Expenditures
• Core CPI: 4.7% – Consumer Price Index
• Unemployment Rate: 3.5%

2024

• Core PCE: 2.6% – Personal Consumption Expenditures
• Core CPI: 3.2% – Consumer Price Index
• Unemployment Rate: 4.3%

The August Jobs Report will be released September 5th with the anticipated unemployment rate at or above 4.3%. The Feds will be pressured to cut 50pp but if the unemployment rate drops, they may only cut 25pp.

Thinking about Refinancing, what if we not only drop your rate but drop it down a point lower for the first year on us… Lets talk