Sixteen of the nineteen members did not foresee the unemployment rate rising above 4.1% in 2024. We are now at 4.3%. Over the last two months, I have repeatedly emphasized the importance of understanding the real unemployment numbers and questioning the accuracy of the data.

I am genuinely surprised by the Fed’s initial Summary of Economic Projections.

The Federal Reserve has access to more detailed information than we do and is specifically qualified to interpret that data. It baffles me how they missed this when many of us were loudly warning anyone who would listen.

Here is the bottom line: the 10-year bond yield is back above the 2-year bond yield, as logic would dictate. Longer hold periods mean higher yields.

Rates have improved their gains from last week but remain somewhat volatile as the stock market reacts to the sell-off caused by the jobs report news.