The BLS Jobs report significantly depends on the birth/death model, which estimates job gains and losses by analyzing company startups and closures to determine their impact on employment.

The QCEW – Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages released their Q4 job revision data. They stated only 344,000 jobs created vs the BLS report of 637,000.

Herein lies the issue: the market reacts to this data, and if it is filled with estimates, projections, and guesswork, it can lead to inaccurate perceptions and decisions. This reliance on potentially imprecise data can cause volatility and misguided strategies, affecting investors, businesses, and policymakers who depend on the accuracy of these reports for economic planning and forecasting.

The FEDs rely on this data, and in my opinion, they are too data-driven, especially when there are wild inconsistencies in how the data is collected and interpreted.