The market reacts to the news not the revision. When we look at inflation as an example, we always couch it in terms of “year over year”. But most of the other numbers and gauged by “month over month”.

A good example is todays Durable Goods Orders. We expected -0.8%. What we got was a rise of 0.7%. The market, specifically the Bond market saw the 1.5% differential and reacted accordingly (negatively).

Last months reading of 2.6% was revised lower by 1.8% bringing March to 0.8%. The actual reading today fell -1.0% which was worse than the expected -0.8%.

Another example: Core Durable Goods rose 0.3%, which was stronger than the estimates of 0.1%. There was a negative revision from the previous month of 0.3%, which brought March to -0.1%. When factoring that in, the reading was 0.0%, lower than the expected 0.1% stated above.

The Bond Market, which is what rates are based on, reacts to the headline not the math. The consumers are slowing their roll. First it was Retail Sales and now its Durable Goods.

Walmart and Target both announced store wide price cuts. Others will follow and inflation will drop.

The Train is coming but the Feds are too busy looking in the rear view mirror to realize they are parked on the track.