ADP Employment report showed 107,000 jobs created in January, but was weaker than the 150,000 expected.

Here is the breakdown

Goods-Services Added 30,000

Manufacturing  Added 2,000

Construction   Added 77,000  *155,000 last month

Hospitality   Added 28,000

Annual Pay for Job Stayers increased 5.2% down from 5.4%. Job Changers increased 7.2% down from 8.0%. Still strong but moving down.

Going back 19 months, Stayers saw a 16.4% increase in pay, while job Changers was 7.8%. What the Math tells us is the difference between last year and this year’s stayers/changers is only 2%. It was over 7%. Employers are holding onto their employees and employees are more reluctant to change.

The Fed concludes their 2-day meeting today with a Press Conference at 2:00pm ET.

Rates continue to improve as we expect the Feds to pause on rate hikes as we look towards March for a possible rate cut.