Attempting to count a room full of cats or a pond teeming with fish is futile.

Similarly, the Federal Reserve employs various indices, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Personal Expenditures (PCE), and Truflation. While CPI and PCE analyze around 80,000 data points, Truflation delves into a staggering 10 million data points.

Within CPI and PCE, Shelter or Rents constitute the largest component. The disparity between CPI at 3.4% and PCE at 2.6% arises from CPI assigning twice the weight to Shelter costs compared to PCE.

Shelter costs are akin to looking through a rearview mirror, lagging in reporting their true numbers or decline. Anticipations suggest more accurate shelter data reporting by March/April.

Obtaining an accurate glimpse of the true costs of products and services proves nearly impossible. Keep an eye out for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) numbers releasing on Friday, as we anticipate a positive impact on the Bond market and rates.