50% chance the first Fed rate cut in March – Solita Marcelli CIO UBS

UBS Global Wealth Management forecasts the 10-year Treasury yield will end 2024 at 3.5%. Today we are at 4.27%.

Translation: Mortgage Rate improvement will continue in 2024

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Fed’s interest-rate committee “is moving forward carefully.”

Translation: Feds will hold Fed Rates and eying cuts in 2024

Fed Chicago Pres Austan Goolsbee said that worries by economists that inflation would get stuck above 3% have been proven unfounded. “I just don’t get that. There’s no evidence that we are stuck at 3%.”

Translation: We will hit the Target 2% inflation number sooner than later.


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