What will the Fed statement be at 2pm ET and Powell’s comments at 2:30pm ET. We entirely expect a pause but Powell stirs the pot.

JOLTS report – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, shows job openings in September, rose 9.5M to 9.55M. Job openings rose but hiring rate stayed the same at 3.7%. This is a low number. Also the quit rate is 2.4%, another low number.

Now let’s look at the ADP Employment Report. 113,000 jobs created in September, expectations 150,000. Let’s put this into perspective.

3-month average: 127,000

6-month average: 236,000

12-month average: 225,000

2022 average: 306,000

Another interesting data point is the annual pay for job stayers (increased 5.7%) and job lookers (increased 8.4%). You might think these are high numbers but when you take a closer look you see they have cooled considerably from the highs of 8% and stayers 16%. This can be equated to the big post pandemic pay increases that seem to be behind us.

The Mortgage Applications report from MBA shows both purchase and refinance applications down. If you are looking for a home, now might be the time. less competition.

Projected interest rates for the next 12 months.