Now that I have your attention. The Birth and Death Model is a traditional workforce health indicator where Birth is the start of a company and Death is the closing of a company. The pandemic saw fewer close business compared to openings.

There is correlation between the two. This is an average of all company types so the percentage can vary from no change in the utility companies to leisure and hospitality which saw an decrease in business starts in January of a negative 16% to a positive 80% this July. Construction varies dramatically throughout the year swinging from a negative 44% in January to a positive 11% in July.

The forecast model predicts a negative Birth to Death Model indicating slower job growth i.e. Fed’s work has done its job.

We are eagerly anticipating Jerome Powell Fed Chair comments on inflation tomorrow.