We are getting conflicting data from the San Francisco and Cleveland Fed.

The SF Fed wrote an article on shelter costs which is the biggest component to CPI inflation report. They anticipate a big decline in Shelter costs this year from 7.8% down to 5% by November. Their projections are to go negative by May 2024.

The Cleveland Fed is forecasting inflation will increase by 0.4% in July which is an increase from 3%. The forecast for July is even higher at 4.1%. This part is not good for interest rates.

These numbers are based on a year over Year comparison so it’s a bit tricky teasing out the correct data.

ZipRecruiter is showing a slowdown in opening and willingness to hire. This is the third quarter in a row suggesting a big slowdown in the job market.